2014-02-15

UPDATE 1:
— Winter Storm Warning in Effect from 10 AM Today to 5 AM Tomorrow–
— Blizzard Warning in Effect for east-facing MA Coastal Zones, Cape & Islands —
 
Shrewsbury Area Weather for Today, 2/15/2014 (see disclaimer at bottom)…

0700 2/15 fcst 

 
Total Snow: ~4.28″ to ~5.59″ by Sunday AM
 
Details:
Well, this just keeps getting better and better!  Not only will we get some descent snow today, but it looks like another wintry mix is possible Monday into Tuesday…
I have increased my snow accumulations by a couple of inches given the storm track and deepening of this system. Berkshires looks to get a couple of inches and SE MA gets the jackpot of ~12″ from this storm…
I am still a bit cautious with snow totals because two of my models came in ~10″ (about as effective at waking me up on a Saturday morning as double-shot of caffeine).  I will be watching this storm closely because the last time this scenario played out (last winter), we got thumped with snow because we all dismissed the outliers.
Snowfall rates will increase starting ~4 PM and will remain heavy for the rest of the day.  Avoid travel after 4 PM.
By the way – The Old Farmer’s Almanac “forecast”  “Sunny; cold, then mild”  for last week into next. Ha!  I knew we were in for a bad winter back on September 29th when I saw and photographed the rare and infamous “double yellow winter trouble” caterpillar on one of the MA rail trails:
Inline image 1
This little guy is never wrong, no sir.
Continue to monitor weather reports today, and tune your NOAA All Hazards Wx Radio to Channel 7 for the greater Worcester area…  I will check my weather rock and send an update in a few hours…
Steve
On Fri, Feb 14, 2014 at 5:40 PM, Stephen Daukas wrote:
— Winter Weather Advisory in Effect from 10 AM Tomorrow to Midnight Tomorrow–
— Blizzard Watch in Effect for east-facing MA Coastal Zones Saturday —
— Winter Storm Warning in Effect for SE MA Saturday —
 
Shrewsbury Area Weather for Saturday, 2/15/2014 (see disclaimer at bottom)…

1700 2/14 fcst 

Tomorrow
Dew Point ~23°F, High T ~36°F, Low T ~18°F, Winds WSW – NNW @ 5 – 20 MPH
Precip: Snow ~2.49″ to 3.12″Sunday
Dew Point ~8°F, High T ~26°F, Low T ~10°F, Winds WNW @ 12 – 15 MPH
Precip: None

Details:
As they say, here we go again…  
 
A surface Low and upper-level short wave will redevelop off the mid-Atlantic coast and move towards the 40/70 benchmark south of Nantucket.  This storm will “bomb out” (a.k.a. bombogenesis) strengthening into another strong winter storm.  This time, the storm will be a “fast mover” with the main zone of accumulation over SE MA, Cape Cod and the Islands.  Our area will see snow accumulation between ~2″ and ~3″ while SE MA and the Cape could see another ~9″ to ~12″ of snow.  It is possible that our area could get as many as 5.3″ of snow depending on storm track, but I do not think this is likely.  Precip should begin ~1PM and end ~Midnight.
I will send an update tomorrow morning…
Last Two Storms:
 
2/13/2014
Forecast:  ~9.94″ to ~12.01″ Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain
Measured: 11.3″ 
 
2/5/2014
Forecast:  ~10.7″ to ~12.8″
Measured: 12.0″
Disclaimer:
My forecasts should not be used for anything other than general information.
You should not send my forecasts to others without this disclaimer attached
so that there is no chance of misinterpretation by others.  Thanks!Steve
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